Yang Xinmiao: Jams Are Just Starting in China

By staff reporter GONG HAN

China Today: Traffic congestion in Beijing is getting worse. It has been ranked as one of the world's most clogged-up city by foreign media. What do you think is the source of the congestion?

Yang: When cities reach a certain stage of development a number of urban maladies appear: first, housing problems – which we have been experiencing; second is traffic, and then environment. Beijing and many more Chinese cities are at this stage. Traffic congestion is just a symptom. It's analogous to a runny nose, which is the result, not the cause, of a cold. If a city lacks sound development planning, simply going about things piecemeal on a "suck it and see" basis, you cannot expect good results. Beijing was first defined by the Second Ring Road, then came the Third, and now the Seventh! In this hectic city expansion, the transportation system always plays a passive role, exerting itself to cope with the demands of fast city development.

China Today: Have other big cities in the world gone through this stage?

Yang: Yes. As far back as 80 years ago New York and London began to fret over traffic jams. In fact, the U.S. still hasn't got the situation totally under control. Developing countries are in a tougher situation: some cities in India, Malaysia and the Philippines are in an even worse mess than we are.

China Today: Is there anything different about Beijing congestion?

Yang: New York City is clogged, but in a stabilized way, as it has a developed public transport system, one that's become efficient through a century of evolution. Most people commute to and from Manhattan by subway and bus. But in Beijing the jams are growing in full spate, caused and escalated by the steep rise in the number of private cars and the city's relentless expansion. Our problem is more serious: this is only the beginning.

China Today: What do you think of Beijing's new congestion control policy? Are there any big new ideas?

Yang: It's the first time we've put a limitation on annual motor vehicle increase in the last two decades. This is a qualitative difference from previous methods. Actually curbing car numbers has been debated for years and now we are doing it. There are no better choices: the city's road network was saturated during peak hours years ago. For instance, before the 2008 Olympics the maximum peak-hour capacity per lane of the Fourth Ring Road was 2,000 cars per hour. It remains so today, despite the huge increase in total vehicle numbers.

China Today: What is your take on the controversy caused by the new policy?

Yang: Differences of opinion on the issue are only to be expected. For traffic regulators and for those who already own cars, the fewer cars on the road the better. But there are would-be car owners too. We have to look at the big picture, and beyond the short term. When we look back, from a 2050 standpoint say, we will acknowledge this was a correct decision. China is not a giant in car manufacturing, but no dwarf either. It has the world's largest car production capacity: its annual output exceeds that of the U.S. Taking the long view, limiting car numbers is absolutely necessary.

Beijing drivers line up to grab license plates the day before the city's rationing policy came into effect. China Foto Press

The new policy is not draconian. The 240,000 quota is equivalent to the annual increase in motor vehicles in Beijing prior to 2008. Hong Kong has a pretty sensible figure of one car per 10 persons, compared with Beijing's one to five. If that rises to one to two, or even four cars to five people like in the U.S., the result will be disastrous. So I believe this policy to be better than nothing, even if the implementation is not so ideal.

Actually, back in 2008 there were voices within the Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport advocating for reining in car ownership, but these were drowned out in the exaltation over the success of the temporary traffic controls during the Olympic Games period. Had those ideas been adopted, today's road conditions would been much better. Now housing prices have sky-rocketed far beyond the reach of most young citizens; they will be even further dismayed at the prospect, under the new plate rationing system, of being unable to have a car even if they can afford one.

China Today: Will the policy take some of the pressure off the roads?

Yang: It's hard. Congestion is a long-term issue and the limit on cars is only an interim solution. All it can do is to take the heat out of demand for the moment, put off the problem and hence win us some breathing space for improving public transportation.

China Today: How will the policy impact the automobile industry?

Yang: It will definitely affect car sales in Beijing, but it's good for China as a whole. An industry needs to develop in a sustainable way; the overheated growth of the past years is not necessarily a good thing. Furthermore, if the transportation system imploded, everyone would suffer.

China Today: The new policy has given us some breathing space. How can public transport be improved in that time?

Yang: The key is to give road priority to public buses. We must create a new system that residents are willing to use. Seoul is a good example: in that city of 20 million, public transportation was once very weak and the number of users fell away steadily. In 2004 they tackled the problem with a combination of new subways and a surface road network reserved for public buses. The result was less congestion.

Now Beijing has 600 kilometers of subway lines, but no system of bus-only roads. Getting such a system going is quite a challenge: If two lanes of a four-lane, two-way carriageway are reserved for buses, but passenger flow turns out to fall below the expected level, car drivers will get really sore. Getting the relationship balanced depends on scientific design and political resolve.

China Today: Beijing's concentric-pattern loop-over-loop expansion has long come in for criticism. If the layout cannot be changed, is it possible to improve the traffic?

Yang: For a city located on a plain the concentric layout would not be a major problem. But for Beijing, with its 20-million-plus population, this kind of urban design has big flaws. People shuttle between their suburban homes and downtown workplaces twice a day, spending at least two hours on their commutes. We are considering whether Beijing should give up a few things, relocating some industries out of the city: for example, putting the second airport in neighboring Hebei, building a new airport city nearby for up to three million inhabitants, and developing high-tech research bases and universities there. Only with a good distance from the old downtown area, will there be need for plenty of industries/businesses and homes developed at the same time in the new city. Without this, encouraging people to "find jobs close to home" is nothing more than sloganizing.

China Today: Is it an established trend that congestion has spread to second- and third-tier cities?

Yang: Yes, in an explosive way. In the last two to three years, or even less, we will see congestion in almost all Chinese cities. For the moment Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Qingdao all suffer. Our auto production capacity of 20 million vehicles a year could bring gridlock to most of our large and medium-sized cities. In comparison, we are more concerned about smaller cities, about 600 in number. Given sensible urban design and stronger management, traffic congestion can hopefully be avoided.

China Today: Do Chinese cities share the same problems in traffic management?

Yang: Yes. First, no one entity is in charge of urban transportation. In big cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen it is the responsibility of the local traffic administration. However, in most cities, there is no specific department with clear and complete responsibility for this.

Second, the managerial level is not what is needed today. It is a problem that all developing countries have, not just China – per capita consumption is rising, while public services have fallen behind.

All in all, administrative organizations in the field of transportation are weak compared to other governmental departments; sometimes they have only decorative function. Yang Xiaoguang, a professor at Tongji University, has compared the transportation department to a public restroom – people think of it only whey they need it, the rest of the time they pay it no heed. He was spot on. Beijing is now attaching great importance to this issue, but in many cities the prevailing attitude is still "the transportation department is only for road building." The government sections overseeing industries carry far more clout.

China Today: Will Beijing's new policy be taken up by other cities, despite all the controversy?

Yang: Probably. Beijing is always an example looked to by other cities. Its urban design has been copied time and again elsewhere. Other cities can learn from Beijing's experience, but need to be selective as to which elements will suit their particular characteristics.

In Shanghai license plates were sold to the highest bidder, whereas Beijing thought the lottery approach better. But cities where the market economy is developed, like Guangzhou, have preferred the auction model, since it pulls in more revenue as well as limiting plates.

China Today: Some academics have warned that "the worst has yet to come" in Beijing. Do you think that too?

Yang: The present can always get worse. New problems are always emerging. The big cities in the U.S. are still congested.

A dozen years ago, many Chinese transportation academics didn't know how to drive. Not any more. They now have a deeper and more personally involved understanding of the motorized city.

But decision makers and managers in the area of city planning and the general public are yet to be fully aware of what cars will bring to the city and their lives. This realization is a gradual process, during which we often do things that seem right at the time but in hindsight are clearly mistakes.