Short-term Expediency?

    Beijing is not the only city that has encountered severe traffic problems. London, Paris, Tokyo and New York have all had similar experiences. "Many cities around the world have also taken steps to cope with traffic congestion, including developing public transport and restricting private car use," comments Guo Jifu.

    Even so, many experts argue that traffic restrictions are simply short-term expedient measures, since increases in overall rates of car ownership will inevitably erode their effects. In addition, restrictions will simply push some consumers to buy a second car. Sun Jian, who works for an insurance company, is an example. She and her husband already own a car each, and Sun is now considering buying a third in order to be guaranteed use of her car "at any time."

    Sinotrust International Information and Consulting Co., Ltd. recently conducted a survey on consumers' car purchasing plans. Of the 2,287 respondents who already own a car, 50 percent said they would buy a second vehicle. Only 30 percent opt to take a subway or bus on days they can't use their own vehicle. Of the 588 respondents who do not currently own a private car, 46 percent replied that they would buy one in the future, despite traffic restrictions. "People's interest in buying a car has been aroused by the government's preferential policies on car consumption," claims Sun Jian.

    Beijing car ownership is growing by 1,000 vehicles a day, so gains made by traffic restrictions won't last long. "The number of vehicles is increasing day by day, and a-day-per-week traffic restriction cannot solve the problem," affirms Han Jingrun. Vehicle owners on the car club forum are worried that the government may neglect to take other measures to solve congestion now that traffic restrictions have been renewed.

    Huang Dan migrated to Seoul eight years ago, but often returns to Beijing on business. She said that the Republic of Korea began to enforce traffic restrictions several years ago according to license plate numbers, but the restrictions largely apply to government offices, thereby reducing the number of public cars on the road. "Most of my friends in Beijing own private cars. They all hold that traffic restrictions should focus on government vehicles," says Huang Dan.

    In addition, the Seoul government has used economic incentives to encourage citizens to reduce their private car usage. By selecting a day on which they do not use their car, owners can get tax cuts, oil price discounts and parking fee exemptions or reductions. In China, car owners used to get back part of their road maintenance fee in line with traffic restrictions, but the fee has now been canceled altogether, so it no longer acts as an incentive.

    Xia Xueluan, a professor of sociology at Peking University, holds that traffic restrictions should not become permanent. "The norm should be smooth travel. But in circumstances where we have undeveloped public transport, traffic restrictions are an expedient measure."

Developing Public Transport

    Han Jingrun takes the subway on days he cannot use his car, but his home is a long way from the nearest station so he has to take a taxi or bus to the station. "I have to get up half an hour earlier so that I will not be late for work," he explains.

    According to the evaluation report of the Beijing Transportation Research Center, during the period of traffic restrictions the average daily passenger volume on Beijing public transport increased by 2.87 million people. The average daily passenger volume of surface public transport reached 13.43 million (15.93 million at its peak), and 3.53 million (4.38 million at its peak) were conveyed by subway.

    Han Jingrun sums up the two key inconveniences of public transport: there is no guarantee of punctuality, and buses and trains are frequently overcrowded. He has been late to work several times when taking the subway. "To maintain my image, I bring suits to the office and change after I arrive," he says.

    Xizhimen Subway Station is one of Beijing's key transport hubs. During rush hours passengers stand in long lines on the platform, waiting their turn to board a train. Traffic restrictions have only increased the demand for public transport and highlighted the systems' inadequate carrying capacity.

    Liu Xiaoming, director of the Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications, holds that Beijing's transport structure is extremely irrational. He says that the proportion of daily taxi use in urban areas has increased from 6 percent 20-odd years ago to 32 percent today, while the share of public transport use has declined to less than 30 percent. There is a wide gap between Beijing and similarly-sized cities in Western countries, where public transport carries more than 60 percent of the total transport volume.

    Mao Baohua, a professor with Beijing Jiaotong University, confirms Liu's assertions. He says that Tokyo has 7 million automobiles, double the number of Beijing, but the frequency of motor vehicle usage in Tokyo is only one third that of China's capital. In Tokyo, the average annual mileage traveled is less than 10,000 kilometers per car. In contrast Beijingers drive an average of 30,000 kilometers every year. In addition, Tokyo's rail transport network and other forms of public transport are much more developed.

    At present, Beijing's rail mileage is only 200 kilometers, and the daily passenger volume is only three to four million. According to Liu Xiaoming, the solution to Beijing's transport problems is to further develop the rail network. Beijing has earmarked an investment of RMB 191.2 billion for its rail transport between 2009 and 2015. According to this plan, by 2015 Beijing's total rail mileage will reach 561 kilometers.

    Meanwhile, the traffic management department will make greater efforts to improve the way the road network is run. Since traffic jams mainly occur within Beijing's Fourth Ring Road, parking fees will be raised and the number of parking lots in the area restricted. There will also be restrictions on cars entering the inner city. In suburban districts, car use policies will be relaxed.

    When the 2009 Shanghai International Automobile Exhibition opened on April 20, it turned out to be 20 percent bigger than last year's. Numerous auto giants are taking aim at China's potentially huge auto market, which has remained strong despite the global economic downturn. It seems certain that China's large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will continue to face immense challenges managing traffic in the coming years.