BEFORE family planning was implemented in China, getting pregnant and bearing children was a fairly random affair. My mom is the youngest of nine sisters and brothers. She herself bore four children, while her sisters and brothers each had between five and seven offspring. When her sister's husband died at the age of 36, they already had seven kids. Similarly, my father is from a family of four. His three siblings had twelve kids altogether. Their generation, as well as those before them, never engaged in family planning. Couples simply kept having children until they grew beyond the child-bearing age. In the 1970s, Chinese women gave birth to an average of six children each.
I have three sisters and brothers, all born between 1949 and 1958. All of us married late and have only one child each. One of us had a child at 38. This reflects a fundamental change in the attitude towards childbirth, from following nature's course to making conscious decisions. Childbirth is no longer simply a continuance of the bloodline, and involves many considerations. Even childless couples are becoming more common.
By 1979 the birth rate in Chinese cities had fallen to an average of 1.5 children per couple, and after 1984 (not including the years 1989-1990), it fell below 1.3. Shanghai and Beijing had even lower birth rates, and since 2000 both cities' rates have fallen below an average of one child per couple. Along with Hong Kong and Macao, Beijing and Shanghai now have the world's lowest birth rates. Without this sudden curtailing of China's young population, it is estimated the country would have had some 400 million extra people to deal with.
Differences Between the Country and City
The birth rate's dramatic drop began in the 1970s, when the government initiated family planning policy to cope with increasing population pressure. At that time, I was serving in the army and fast accepted the ideas of "late marriage and late childbirth" and "one child per family is best." I got married at the age of 27, and had my only child a year later. My army colleagues were the same. All of us were busy at work. With just one child in the family, and with a guaranteed income, we felt less economic pressure than our forebears. We often said army personnel put the nation before anything else, and we never put individual interests before our country. At that time I was working in the army's ideological department, and family planning was our responsibility. During the years I was in the department, there wasn't a single unplanned child. Now, the next generation has reached the age of marriage and child rearing, and many hesitate before taking these steps. Their decisions have become very rational and independent.
In the beginning, farmers were hesitant about family planning, because they had no pension. After a life of labor, they entirely depended on their children to take care of them, making a son crucial. Having both sons and daughters was even better. They dreaded only having daughters, for this was commonly viewed as making them "heirless." If they knew the coming baby was a girl, some preferred a stillborn. One of my friends has a daughter-in-law from the countryside. Her family has four daughters and in order to get a son, her parents kept having children until a boy arrived.
Between 1970 and 1980, forced measures were practiced in the countryside to stop excessive childbirth, which resulted in many conflicts between farmers and local government, even giving China a bad image abroad. These drastic measures also created unbalanced gender ratios. After this, family planning was improved. Now farmers can have a second child four years after the first, a policy that has reduced resistance. From trips we made to the countryside we have learnt that as long as social security is available and farmers are taken care of in their old age, rural people are willing to have fewer children.
Correcting the "Childless" Preference
Originally, we were so worried about the fast growing population that we even encouraged "childlessness," which found ready acceptance among many young couples. I was not for or against this practice. Either way, I wanted the Chinese population to decrease.
A former middle school classmate once complained to me that she could not have a grandchild because her daughter-in-law refused to have a child due to her low income, small apartment and inability to provide a good education and living conditions for her child. The daughter-in-law also said she did not want to burden her parents-in-law. My schoolmate was retired and had nothing to do at home. Whenever she saw a baby her pent-up love for children was released. She also worried about who would take care of her when she got old. Once her husband died, who would keep her company and who would keep the family line going?
Her worries are common. Many problems have developed because of one-child families. Parents, for example, are left completely childless if their son or daughter contracts a fatal disease or has an accident. Many couples lost their only child in the devastating Sichuan earthquake last year, which was especially heartbreaking for those now too old to have another.
"Childless" practices are harmful to a nation. If they were to become widespread, the nation would die. According to Professor Yuan Xin from Nankai University, the birth rate in Japan in 2004 was just 1.28, the lowest since World War Two. If this rate continues, The Asahi Shimbun warned, the Japanese nation will die in 200 years. The professor says if the Chinese birth rate remains at 1.46 (the 2000 figure that had some couples giving birth to two or even more children), by 2300 the Chinese population will be just 75 million. If the birth rate were 1.3, by 2300 the Chinese population would be just 28 million. "Even the smallest decrease in the birth rate will be disastrous to the Chinese nation as long as it continues for a long enough period. So any policy must have a longer-term vision," the professor admonished.
Seeking Active Countermeasures
At midnight on January 6, 2005, the Chinese population reached 1.3 billion. In 40 years, according to experts, the population will reach its limit: 1.6 billion. After that, the population will gradually decrease. For experts, maintaining the current low birth rate and a rational gender ratio and age structure are crucial.
Currently, people are arguing about the correct birth rate for China's sustainable progress. Everyone agrees an unbalanced gender ratio will be disastrous. The fact that many young men will be unable to find a wife threatens social stability and family structures. Among other questions being discussed are China's aging population, and how one child will take care of two parents and four grandparents. There are also issues related to family structures and education.
I believe the Chinese government should maintain the current low birth rate, but prevent it from decreasing too fast. Zhang Weiqing, ex-minister of the State Population and Family Planning Commission, says the current birth rate in China is between 1.7-1.8, which is good for the current situation since it will relieve population pressure. However, many scholars think the rate is lower in reality. According to the study of demographer Zeng Yi, 63.1 percent of couples nationwide are allowed just one child, while 35.6 percent of couples are allowed two and 1.3 percent are allowed three. If these figures are accurate, the current birth rate is just 1.382. Many experts say everyone, apart from couples who are both from one-child families, should be allowed to have a second child. This policy will hopefully be realized in 2015.
As for young people born after 1980 who have lost interest in childbirth, society should provide correct guidance for them to reexamine their view of bearing and rearing children. A child is indeed an emotional link that will strengthen a marriage. To young couples, bearing and rearing children is a process of maturing and growing into responsible citizens. There is also the joy of family life. To children, family love is more important than the level of financial comfort their parents can give them; a difficult financial situation may help them grow strong both physically and psychologically, and often help build up characters that better pave the way for their future success.
Unbalanced gender ratios do not result in marriage difficulties, but economic, regional, cultural and urban-rural disparities do. Today, some white-collar young women in the cities hate to marry someone from the countryside, even if he is a millionaire. This means she may remain single for the rest of her life. To some young people, remaining single is sad, but it is the only alternative they have.
On the other hand, unbalanced gender ratios have benefited women socially, economically and politically. The traditional practice of valuing sons more than daughters is changing fast.
Today, China has 140 million people over 60 years old, and this elderly population is fast increasing. Shanghai is the first city in China to have an aging population, beginning in 1979. By December 31, 2007, 20.8 percent of people with Shanghai residential permits were over 60, or one in every five. Social progress and better living conditions have seen the life span of Chinese people on the mainland increase from an average 40 years in the 1950s to 72 today. The number of people over 100 years old increased from 6,681 in 1990, to 17,877 in 2000, and almost 30,000 in 2008.
Longevity is good, so long as it is not a burden on families and society. One of my schoolmates is working in the U.S., where he says the retirement age is 67. Many people work even after retirement. Yet large numbers of Chinese people retire at 45, and wile away the rest of their years on a pension with nothing to do. This situation needs to change. Society needs to help them do something within their abilities.
A reverse pyramid structure of one child, two parents and four grandparents will create problems in taking care of the old. Without a proper education, the only child may easily turn selfish, become strong-minded, self-centered and lack the ability to lead an independent life. He or she may even have difficulties associating with other people. The outside world may scare him or her, and the child may be unable to take on family responsibilities even in adulthood. All this may hinder him or her from marrying and having a family. Parents and society need to facilitate the next generation's maturity and readiness to take on responsibilities.
I believe, with wisdom, we will be able to solve China's population issue, avoid serious mistakes and maintain sustainable progress.
