Between 1949 and 1970, before the family planning policy came into effect, Chinese women's average age of first marriage was less than 20, and the age of rural women was generally two to three years younger than that of their urban counterparts, according to research by demographers Hu Ping and Zhu Chuzhu at Xi'an Jiaotong University. By the end of the 1970s, the average age of women's first marriage had risen to 23.05 years. The marriage age among urban women and those living in more developed areas was still higher. Women in big cities like Shanghai and Beijing now often delay marrying till the age of 27.

    Postponing marriage gives young women more time for education and skills training, and therefore a chance to work and be economically independent. They thus fulfill more of their intellectual and work potential and also achieve higher social and familial status.

    The later age of first marriage among women has led to a higher age of first births. Hu Ping's 1980s research shows an average primiparity of 24.3 years among rural women and 27.97 among urban women in China's developed areas. Urban women were more willing to take family planning measures to delay leaving their jobs and taking on all the extra work of raising a child.

    By restricting and delaying procreation, therefore, family planning reduced the burden on women, freeing them to make their own choices based on reproductive health and domestic economics.

Family Planning Policy Drawbacks

    The family planning policy is now being reexamined by many demographers and economists. They argue that the 1970s conditions of explosive population growth amid material shortages and limited natural resources have now changed, to the extent that the policy is detrimental to future development.

    "China adopted the family planning policy specifically to control high population growth and reduce consumption and at the same time stimulate the economy by promoting bank savings and investment. By cutting grain and energy consumption the policy also helped to limit environmental pollution," said Zuo Xuejin, demographer and executive vice-president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. "But China's socio-economic environment has since changed dramatically. Science and technology have ended material shortages and the macro policy now is to expand consumption. The rapid growth of per capita energy consumption and pollution today is not a result of population growth but of China's extensive mode of growth," Zuo added.

    "Policymakers have not taken into consideration that social development itself reduces the fertility rate," said Yi Fuxian, doctor of pharmacology and special researcher at the Dajun Economic Observation and Research Center. According to Yi's data, the present 12.5 percent sterility rate represents a 20-fold increase over the past 30 years. Yi believes, taking into account the DINK, celibacy and late fertility phenomena, "The actual fertility rate is lower than the official figure of 1.8 percent."

    The negative impact of a low fertility rate, obvious in European countries, is acute in China, with its large proportion of senior citizens. "There are 9-10 people of working age for every senior citizen above the age of 65 in China today. By 2045, the ratio will be 2:1. This is a daunting prospect, even in a smooth economic situation," economist Lang Xianping said. He cautions that though the work force born in the baby boom can help sustain China's fast economic growth for another 15 years, the country's demographic reserves will be exhausted thereafter. "The family planning policy has cost China hundreds of millions of descendants. As India has never instituted a strict family planning policy, its younger population structure in 2025, as China enters an aging society, will be poised to promote the country's economic prowess. India will thus overtake China," Lang said.

    The absence of a "population dividend" apart, China's gender imbalance is also alarming.

    But the authorities are cautious about a substantial policy change and maintain meantime their line on family planning. They worry that relaxing it to a "second-child" policy will bring social turbulence within a short period of time by virtue of the rapid population growth it might spark. This is a valid point, in light of results of a recent survey that suggest more people now want a second child.

    "The issue is not whether or not to adjust the fertility policy, but more important, to make a judgment based on the present population situation and projected future trends," said Gu Baochang, professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China. After seven years' participation in an intra-institutional investigation, Gu now believes, "China has once more reached a historic crossroads."