Sino-Indian Relations in the New Era
New Opportunities
The accelerated integration of the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific brought both opportunities and challenges to the future development of the two countries.
The Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean are rapidly integrating. Trans-national economic, trade and investment have made the two economies, though geographically distinct, begin to attain the primary qualities of regional economic integration. On the one hand, as the economic center of gravity moves eastward, the two oceans are becoming the world’s most dynamic regions; on the other, strengthened economic links between the two regions have accelerated their economic interaction. China hopes to take this opportunity to restore the Maritime Silk Road, while India wishes to advance its “eastward strategy.” This is an opportunity as well as a challenge for Sino-Indian cooperation.
The opportunity lies in the economy. Given their complementary economies, the two countries are natural partners, and have preset a goal of US $100 billion in bilateral trade in 2015. Currently the two countries have agreed to speed up pragmatic cooperation to dovetail the two giant markets and promote regional economic integration. Both will advance infrastructure to give full play to the convergence of interests between India’s “eastward policy” and China’s openness to the West. The BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) Economic Corridor, initiated by China and India, embodies the convergence of interests.
On the other hand, a challenge exists in the expansion of strategic space, and in diplomatic and defense practices guided by this. India, judging from its developing environment and the Asia-Pacific regional situation and power pattern, gives priority to the Asia-Pacific region. Its interaction with other Asia-Pacific countries like Japan and U.S., to some degree, is a reasonable concern of China. Meanwhile, China’s restoration of the Maritime Silk Road and enhanced cooperation with Indian Oceanic countries is a strategic concern of India. Against the backdrop of the U.S.-dominated Asia-Pacific alliance system, the global strategic partnership between India and Japan is likely to advance. These mechanisms or arrangements are intended to target a rising China and restrain China’s influence. However, objectively speaking, they also reflect India’s pursuit of strategic independence and power balance, as well as economic development, promoting cultural influence and establishing the positive image of a democratic country.
In summary, under rational judgment, politically China and India have more cooperation than confrontation; economically mutual complementation between the two sides is bigger than competition; and culturally the two sides have more affinity than conflicts. It is not objective to partially emphasize mutual benefit or overstate divergences and conflicts. Bilateral development is predestined to face challenges, differences of opinion and goals, as well as expansion, intersection and collision of the two countries’ strategic interests. However, the reached consensus, mechanisms and signed agreements have laid foundations for a steady improvement of mutual political trust and healthy development. Decision-makers of both countries have emphasized that the bilateral relations are significant in global and strategic respects, reflecting their desire for a positive attitude to promote understanding and communication, effectively control disparities, and advance common interests.
WU ZHAOLI is an assistant researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy (NIIS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
