Sino-Indian Relations in the New Era

By WU ZHAOLI

Following the victory by Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Indian general elections, international society is full of curiosity and expectations on the diplomatic policy of the new government. With regard to China in particular, analysts continue to debate and make predictions. Some believe that Modi, a known hardliner, is likely to pursue tough policies towards China because of the boundary dispute; others argue that, since Modi won the election on an economic platform, he will strengthen cooperation with China in trade and investment; still others expect the Modi administration, with a majority of the lower house of the Indian parliament, to promote a favorable environment for settling the boundary dispute.

In the second decade of the 21st century, is it possible for China and India, the two most populous developing countries, to expand cooperation as well as handle their differences? Is it only empty rhetoric to say that Asia is big enough for the ambitions and development of two countries? Is it reasonable for China and India to regard each other as competitors or partners? Which message will Modi’s planned visits to Japan and the U.S. send to international society? To have a clear understanding of the features of Sino-Indian relations and its developing trend, it is necessary to take off the tinted spectacles and see the stark realities.

On May 20, 2014, Narendra Modi was sworn in as prime minister of India.

Controlling Disputes through Dialogue Mechanisms

Although there are disagreements and differences between China and India, there are also dialogue mechanisms through which these issues can be measured and controlled.

Undoubtedly, there are practical issues to face directly between the two countries, like the boundary dispute, trade imbalances, the Dalai Lama, water resources, and the relations between a rising China and other South Asian countries. Among these, the boundary issue is the biggest constraint to improved relations. India is uncertain of China’s role as a threat or partner, which influences their strategists’ judgment on China’s policies and actions. As a result, India’s limited political and strategic trust in China holds back prospects for deeper economic and trade cooperation. And even worse, the national images in the minds of ordinary people are affected.

The boundary issue has long haunted the Sino-Indian relationship. But the good news is that the decision-makers of both sides have realized that the issue should not be an obstacle to bilateral cooperation. With joint efforts, China and India have achieved phased results in negotiations, which reflect a qualitative breakthrough in this regard. More importantly, the boundary is under effective control and is the world’s most peaceful border.

Since the consultation process for the boundary question was launched in 1981, both countries have successively addressed the issue through vice-ministerial level talks, joint working group discussions, diplomatic and military panels, special delegations and consultation and coordination mechanisms. After 30 years, the results are tangible: we have now formed a consensus on political guiding principles (in 2005), established two important negotiation mechanisms (in 2003 and 2012 respectively) and signed three agreements on boundary control (in 1993, 1996 and 2013). In other words, the guiding principles and related treaties have become an important support for dealing with and eventually resolving the border dispute.