Will China Overtake the U.S. This Year?

By QI LEDAO

The 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP) released by the World Bank in April indicates that China may surpass the U.S. this year as the country with the highest GDP, based on calculations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP). The news immediately gained worldwide attention, especially in major Western media. However, the Chinese government has expressed reservations about this conclusion, disputing the method of measurement used and having tried to stop publication of this report.

World Bank data show that more than 98 million Chinese people still live on less than one dollar everyday.

The PPP calculation is intended to estimate the practical purchasing power of the specified country’s currency and in doing so gauge the size of its economy. The PPP theory first appeared in the early 20th century. It has been often used to calculate a country’s GDP as an alternative to market exchange rates. Generally speaking, for developing countries GDP calculations are higher when PPP is taken into account.

Although we can’t dismiss the PPP-based GDP as a total nonsense, the expectation that China could top the world seems unrealistic to Chinese people and also does not conform to actual economic landscapes. Although China has overtaken the U.S. in a number of fields like overall electric energy production, total industrial output value and total trade volume, it still remains plain to everyone that the quality of the Chinese economy remains far behind the U.S. It has much catching up to do in fields like technology, brand recognition, and core competitiveness.

It’s good to know that China’s authorities oppose the PPP calculation, and that Chinese media remain cool about the World Bank report. This reflects mainstream society’s level-headed awareness of China’s real position in the world economy. China is well aware of the need to remain clear minded and unsusceptible to flattery and exaggerated estimations.    

It may be an over-reaction to regard these overreaching predictions as a conspiracy. The PPP-based GDP also has its reference value despite the disparity between this and the actual figure. We should develop the mindset to treat it realistically.

The World Bank report might well spur the Western economies, prompting them to take seriously the assertion that “China overtakes the U.S.” Their past superficial predictions might give way to more pressing and thoroughgoing analysis.

Meanwhile, China needs to adjust to the new situation. We can’t take the overstatement for granted and puff up with pride; nor can we totally act on our personal feelings and demands to arbitrarily position ourselves. In fact there are multiple “Chinas”: the real China, our perceived China and China in the eyes of the outside world. All exert their influence in national and international politics.

In addition, we should also acknowledge the important fact that we don’t have much sway in the public opinions of the international community. How China is perceived is basically decided by the Western world. But how China acts is up to us. We should have a clear understanding of this. We don’t have to take the outside world’s opinions too seriously, but we also can’t act according to other’s opinions.    

China’s GDP will top the world sooner or later. In this irreversible process, the pressure posed by outside opinions is no big issue. What we should concentrate on is the evolution of practical geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific region that accompanies this process. To amplify the positive effect of the evolution as far as possible, we should have political foresight and the strategic wisdom to see beyond present gains and losses.

The prediction that China’s GDP could top the world is a double-edged sword. It could enhance the whole Chinese society’s confidence to some degree, but could also put more pressure on the government by virtue of the public’s increasing demands for social welfare. The relationship between a country’s wealth and its social harmony and stability is quite tricky. How to gather more and more positive energy rather than complaints from society as a whole in China’s final sprint to the world vertex is probably a critical test in qualifying for the No. 1 title.