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2014-May-5

The Path to Reaching Economic Growth Targets

 
Contribution to the World Economy

As the world’s No. 2 economy and the largest goods-trading nation, China has exerted a growing influence on the world economy. With annual growth at seven to eight percent, it accounts for over one third of the world’s economic growth. On the one hand, China’s economic growth has made a significant contribution to the world economy. On the other hand, China has to rely on a favorable global economic environment to achieve further development.

China’s rapid economic development is not only important to itself, but also beneficial to the world. A better-off China has created a large market for developed countries, because the technologies and equipment that it has depended on are all from such countries.

Take the 2008 financial crisis as an example. Germany was the best performer in the crisis among all the developed countries. As a Nobel laureate in economics has noted, behind the German miracle is China’s rapid development. Much of the key machinery and equipment that China needed came from Germany. High Asian demand fueled the German economy.

Moreover, China’s rapid development also brings substantial benefits to developing countries, which possess relatively rich resources. As China’s industry rises toward the high end of the “smiling curve,” many primary processing industries are gradually moved out. In the process, China has helped developing countries to achieve industrialization, internationalization and modernization.

 In the 1960s, Japan employed 9.7 million workers in its manufacturing industry. In the 1980s, South Korea employed 2.3 million in its manufacturing industry, Taiwan nearly two million, Hong Kong one million, and Singapore about a half million. Yet currently, China’s mainland employs 150 million in the manufacturing industry. This transfer of industries based on changing comparative advantages is called the “Flying Geese” model in international economics; however, I would like to re-label it as the “Leading Dragon” model. I believe that in the coming 10 to 20 years, China’s labor-intensive manufacturing industry will move to foreign countries, and soon all developing countries in the world will be able to enjoy development opportunities similar to those that Japan brought to the four “Asian Tigers” in the 1960s, which in turn brought to China’s mainland in the 1980s. In this way, we could realize the vision that Chinese President Xi Jinping described at the Boao Forum last year: A single flower does not make spring, while all flowers in full blossom bring spring in full swing.

Therefore, China’s rapid development is a boon not only to itself, but also to developed countries, moderately developed countries, resource-rich countries and populous, low-income countries as well.

Meanwhile, the most important fact is that, alongside the rise of China’s status, the international order has changed.Therefore, the rules of the game need to be modified and China should actively participate in international governance.

 

LIN YIFU (Justin Yifu Lin) is former senior vice-president and chief economist of the World Bank, honorary dean and professor at Peking University’s National School of Development, and vice-chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.

      

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