Stable Politics, Steady Growth, Peaceful Development My Expectations of the 18th CPC National Congress
By KAZUTERU SAIONJI
THE 18th CPC National Congress scheduled in early November in Beijing will unveil a new generation of the leadership that will stand at the helm of the country in the coming decade. I will be keeping a close eye on this expected change of personnel. Economy is the second highlight of the meeting that draws my attention. China has achieved amazing economic progress over the past 30 years, but faces changes in line with those that have occurred in both the domestic and world situations. Third is foreign strategy. Since the end of the cold war, no new world order has been established. As a responsible big country, what kind of foreign strategy will China put forward? And what kind of world does China envision? These are the three issues I find most intriguing.
The CPC played a decisive role in eradicating feudalism, imperialism and comprador capitalism, and in achieving national independence — all indisputable facts. Since recovering from the after-effects of the "cultural revolution," the CPC has steered the country in its quest for modernization through reform and opening-up, which has brought about immense changes to people's lives. After 30 years of efforts, China has achieved astonishing development, having overtaken Japan in GDP to become the world's second largest economy. As a developing country, however, China still has a long way to go. I see the mission of the new leadership as guiding China to become a moderately developed country. Economy is undoubtedly the basis of development, but achieving this end also entails improving public awareness and ethics. In this sense, moving on to the next stage of development poses a challenge to the new leadership.
China is at a key stage of transformation, and faces many problems as it develops, such as the widening income gap, environmental damage, limited energy resources and low energy efficiency. Moreover, the imbalance between domestic demand and foreign trade requires an extensive restructuring of trade and industry. Domestic consumption accounts for 70 percent of the U.S.'s GDP and 60 percent Japan's, but accounts for just over 40 percent of China's GDP. Failure to stimulate domestic demand makes achieving growth extremely difficult. Urbanization is the solution. If rural areas, long underdeveloped, are successfully urbanized, they will significantly stimulate domestic demand, and the countryside will become a powerhouse for the country's steady economic growth. Urbanization, however, requires a stable political situation.
In my opinion, there will be no major changes in China's foreign strategy. But as the international situation keeps changing, it would be prudent to take precautions. I think China is capable of maintaining steady growth and becoming a real power in the near future. We have witnessed the rise and fall of many great powers in human history, from the Roman Empire of ancient times to Spain and Portugal in the modern age, and the U.K., France, Russia, Germany, Italy, Japan, as well as the Soviet Union and the United States, in the contemporary era. These countries shared a common strategy – invasion of other countries and hegemonism. And what of China? By neither invading other countries nor adopting a hegemonist strategy upon becoming a leading power, China would be the first "peaceful power" in human history. To this end, it is my hope that the new leadership will establish a specific strategy for peaceful development and enhance and advocate peace education.
KAZUTERU SAIONJI is director of the Confucius College in Nihon Kagakuin College, vice president of the Tokyo Japan-China Friendship Association, visiting professor at Peking University, and guest professor at China Media University.
