What's the Path Forward After the Ruling?

By XU QINDUO

Nearly everyone was expecting an unfavorable decision toward Beijing by the arbitration tribunal at The Hague. But people were still shocked to see the official ruling in its sweeping rejection of China's rights and interests in the South China Sea.

For example, the decision gives all features that remain above water at high tide in the Nansha or Spratly Islands a status of "rocks", including Taiping, which has been considered as "the very heart of the case".

Taiping has been inhabited by humans for some 70 years. Currently about 200 people live on that island, the largest in Nansha, including coast guards, maritime researchers, fishermen and people working at a hospital. There's also a post office and a temple. There're natural vegetation with fresh water.

"It's not Australia, but not a "rock" like so many other tiny land features in the South China Sea whose tips just poke above water at high tide," Professor Paul Gewirtz from Yale University pointed out in a long essay on the dispute. As a matter of fact, Taiping was considered as the one feature that has the strongest claim to island status and a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. 

No wonder you heard complete rejection not only from the Chinese mainland, but also strong  condemnation from Taiwan, which says they will never accept the ruling and it is not legally binding.

The tribunal, which was composed of five part-time arbitrators selected through an ad hoc process, also ruled against China's historic rights to resources within the nine-dash line. The dotted line, previously known as 11 dash lines, was drawn in 1946 by Chinese officials by sailing in U.S. warships. At that time, no countries from this region ever registered any protest until late 1960s when there's report of rich oil and gas resources in the South China Sea.

Whatever the ruling is, any realistic mind would agree that it won't have any impact on the ground as which country controls which islands or reefs, because there's a lack of enforcement of the decision. China exercised its legal right of choosing not to participate in the process and refused to accept the decision, the ruling is basically a piece of waste paper, as said by a former Chinese official.

Therefore, the real question is how China and the Philippines move on in the wake of the drama.

In 1986, the US ripped a ruling document into pieces and dropped them into a dust bin. The ruling, given by the International Court of Justice, was in favor of Nicaragua and against the United States, which supported the Nicaraguan rebels to topple the government. Then the US blocked the attempt by Nicaragua to obtain the compensation by exercising its veto power for several times as a member of the UN Security Council. At one point at the UN General Assembly, only two countries sided with the U.S.