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2013-February-16

Challenges Loom Large for China’s Population Policy

However, 30 years later, it’s time for China to reassess. The results of the sixth national population census released in the early 2011 showed a declining trend in both China’s birthrate and rate of population increase. According to the census, from 2000 to 2010, China’s net population increase was around 70 million. The proportion of minors in their early teens and younger dropped to 16.6 percent, while the elderly (65 years old and above)) portion of the population rose to 8.9 percent. In 2011 the senior population increased to 9.1 percent.

There are a number of social problems brought about by the population policy. These include an imbalanced gender ratio, a rapidly aging population, a fall in the size of the labor force, and the phenomenon of “little emperors” – spoiled only-children who grow used to being the center of their households’ attention. These problems are damaging the social cohesion of the country.

A falling birthrate is also something to worry about. Data from the National Population and Family Planning Commission show China’s current fertility rate stands at 1.8. But some experts, after analyzing data from the sixth national population census, have made the case that the fertility rate is actually 1.5. This is far too low to maintain the country’s existing population structure.

A fertility rate of roughly 2.1 is needed for the size of any current generation to be maintained. Nowadays, most developed countries have fertility rates considerably lower than this, while in developing countries rates twice or even three times as high are not uncommon.

Factors that reduce a country’s fertility rate include increasing costs of child-rearing, rising house prices, delayed marriage and hence later child-bearing age, and work pressures.

“Population trends change very slowly. Therefore, adjustments to population policy must be far-sighted. When we are already seeing the effects of a low fertility rate, it will be too late to adjust the policy. We need to act now and allow couples to have a second child,” said Zuo Xuejin, a scholar on demography.

“Allowing the birth of a second child would not only help arrest the fall in China’s fertility rate and ease the problem of an ‘aging society,’ but also correct the misalignment between family planning policy and people’s personal wishes. An extra benefit would be a reduction in financial expenditures and social costs related to birth control,” Zuo added.

“Besides, increased newborns would also help the economy by expanding domestic consumption.”

Zuo, pointing to world trends, reasoned that even if China allowed couples to give birth to a second child the overall fertility rate would stay lower than 2.0. The negative impact on economic development and social cohesion would be negligible.

Yi Fuxian, another expert on demography, espouses a more radical view – the complete removal of the family planning policy. “The more developed a society is, the lower its fertility rate. In the past, many developed countries and regions have tried to encourage their citizens to have a second child. But they still have not seen any sort of new ‘baby boom.’ Social development and prosperity rely on a population that renews itself,” Yi said.

Step by Step

China’s population policy was initiated 30 years ago. But that isn’t to say that its implementation hasn’t changed. In fact, as a social policy that affects the nation’s economy to a large degree, family planning regulations have been adapting alongside a changing economy.

In the beginning, the “one child” policy met with fierce resistance in China’s rural areas. In 1982 economic reform had only just kicked off in the countryside. With the introduction of the household contract responsibility system, the more laborers a household had, the quicker that household could grow wealthy. Family planning would reduce the number of “laborers” in farming families, and was hence seen as a barrier to wealth. To ease the situation, in 1984 the central government introduced a new measure allowing rural families with only one daughter to have a second child. It was an amendment to make the family planning policy more reasonable, flexible and tolerant.

In 1985, Shanxi Province’s Yicheng County started its “two-child policy,” by which if a woman gives birth to her first child at age 24 or above, she will be entitled to a second child after turning 30. Nearly three decades since the implementation of the policy, the county still sees a population growth rate lower than the national average.

In 2008, based on the fact that the “one-child generation” born in the 1980s had reached marrying age, China made a fresh adjustment to its family planning policy. Now, couples in which both spouses come from “one-child” families are permitted to have two children.

In July 2011, Guangdong officially submitted its application to the central government to join the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoniang, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in a pilot policy whereby couples in which one spouse comes from an only-child family would be allowed to have two children.

The public letter setting out the case for a “one-child” policy published in the People’s Daily 33 years ago also noted that, “If, in 30 years’ time, the problems associated with rapid population growth have been solved, a different policy on family planning could be adopted.” Now, after 31 years during which the policy has proven a success, is it time for a substantial adjustment?

Yes, says Zhai Zhenwu, vice-chairman of China Population Association. Zhai says that recent years have seen many reforms in the social and economic domains, and it’s high time the country follows suit in its family planning.

With the population aging faster than before and the country’s fertility rate having been brought down, it’s time for China to consider a big adjustment. But a big adjustment to a basic state policy would have far-reaching effects, and its complete annulment would be rash. More preparation, discussion and research into the options are needed. China’s leaders have already indicated their willingness to tackle the issue, as indicated in the country’s 12th Five-year Plan, which reads: “We should stick to ‘Family Planning’ as a basic state policy, while gradually improving it.”

Zhai indicated that in-depth studies on the outcomes of any adjustment need to be done. The immediate effect on the country’s fertility should be anticipated.

After 30 years of state-mandated family planning, China’s population growth has been effectively controlled. This is the premise for policy adjustment. But if the fertility rate were to shoot up as soon as the policy is annulled, these 30 years would have come to nothing. Additionally, Zhai says any adjustment needs to be forward-looking and incremental in order to avoid disastrous changes to China’s demographic structure. Sharp increases or drops in population can adversely affect the well-being of entire generations.

Zhai also pointed out that, as evidenced by developed countries’ experience, an aging population seems to be a common phenomenon. Repealing the “one child” policy may not necessarily halt this aging trend. To deal with the problem China should improve its social security system and aged care service industry, instead of simply having more babies.

As the proportion of the population of working age shrinks, the economy needs to become more productive, says Zhai. If labor productivity rapidly improves, the effects of a proportionally shrinking labor pool may not be felt at all. We are already seeing China’s labor productivity rise naturally as the country’s economy moves from labor-intensive to capital-intensive industry. Zhai notes that progress is being made, and as long as there are no radical changes in demographics, Chinese families, whether they have one child or two, should continue to prosper.

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