Is there a golden key to the success of the ongoing Cancun Climate Change Conference? What can we rely on to respond to global climate change? What role does China expect to play at this conference? What, for China, has changed and remained unchanged at international negotiations? What has China said and done during these years? Please explore such topics with me.

Golden Key to Cancun Conference

By staff reporter TANG SHUBIAO

CANCUN Mexico - Recently, there are several reports in the western media related to the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNCCC) in Cancun, Mexico.

A report from Reuters on Nov 22 ventures that whether the conference can make headway towards a comprehensive deal largely depends on China and the United States. The two countries’ opposing standpoints on climate change response has kept similar conferences in a stalemate. It said “with Beijing at odds with Washington and other Western powers over the scale and transparency of emission aims, and the principles underpinning any new deal, even limited success is not a sure thing.”

A report from Voice of America on Nov 23 said that Xie Zhenhua, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China, urged the U.S. to play a leading role and adopt a more positive attitude at the Cancun Conference. In previous conferences, the U.S. and China have crossed swords several times, which is regarded as a contest between developed and developing countries. The performance of these two powers has self-evident significance to this conference.

According to Canada’s Montreal Gazette on Nov 22, the annual report of Global Carbon Project discuss the possibility that carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 might hit a new high, and that emerging countries’ dependence on coal - China and India for example - is a significant cause.

A New Zealand Herald article on Nov 24 mentioned what they call the serious weakness of the Kyoto Protocol - “only developed countries, minus the US, representing about 28 per cent of global emissions, are required to actually cut emissions. China and the US, far and away the world's biggest emitters - accounting for more than 40 per cent of the global total - are not required to make cuts, nor are other big developing emitters such as India and Brazil.”

The authors of the above reports are all searching for the golden key to solve the increasingly pressing issue of global carbon emissions. The answers given are diverse, but they all have in common is that other parties hold the key.

Where is the Key?

Some British think Americans hold the key. According to The Times on Nov 23, Chris Huhne, energy and climate change secretary, believes that it might take three to five years to reach a global agreement to tackle climate change, and he doesn’t expect much from the Cancun Conference apart from some gains in forest conservation and aid to developing counties. The big road block remains that the U.S. shows no sign of how to fulfill its promise -- to reduce emissions by 17% by 2020 from its 2005 level.

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There’s a lot of overlap in opinion in Chinese academic circles. For example, Pan Jiahua, director of Research Centre for Sustainable Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, spoke at a November meeting: “About the negotiation process itself, some say we should promote it, some say we should postpone it, and some advise to let nature take its course. On this issue, China doesn’t have the control or hold the key… At present it is the U.S. that holds and turns this key.

Su Wei holds a different opinion. The Director General of the Department of Climate Change, National Development and Reform Commission, has been representing China in related international negotiations for many years. Su thinks that the golden key for the Cancun Conference is actually not in anyone’s hands, but rather lies in the issue of funds for and transfers of technology, which is the top concern of developing countries, and gives the traction needed to propel multilateral processes after the Copenhagen Conference, and to build mutual trust between developed and developing countries. On the condition that developed countries can make good on the promises of the Copenhagen Conference - concerning funds, technology transfer and capacity building - the Cancun Conference will be a success.

Success Depends on International Cooperation

On Nov 29, the long-awaited Cancun climate change got underway and negotiators from nearly 200 countries and regions gathered together in the Mexican city. At the opening ceremony, a short film makes an emotional appeal to every country to take action on climate change. Mexico President Felipe Calderon said without mincing words: “let me ask you when we are negotiating with this in mind: Rather than speaking on behalf of the nations we represent, remember that here we are responsible for what happens to the billions of human beings in the future… Keep in mind that, in addition to being representatives of our governments, we are mothers, fathers or grandparents generations of human beings of tomorrow who will judge our generation's answer to the obvious challenge of global warming.”