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The
World Banks new chief economist Justin Lin Yifu.
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PROFESSOR Justin Lin Yifu is nothing if not a patriot. The
main reason I returned to China was because I wanted to make a
contribution to the economic development and economic transition
of China, the World Banks new chief economist once
famously said while delivering a talk at the Marshall Lectures
at Cambridge University in 2007. Lin was trying to explain why
he left Yale in the late 1980s after spending time there as a
senior research fellow, and the implication was that he could
well have chosen to stay on in the West, as so many of his fellow
Chinese graduate students were then doing.
On the face of it, the declaration was straightforward and unprepossessing.
But the tone was unmistakable, and it hinted at a moral and intellectual
tenacity a quality he will now arguably need in ample supply
that may begin to explain the storied origins of his career.
Retold any number of times, the legendary tale of Justin Lins
dramatic departure from Taiwan in 1979, when he swam across two
kilometers of open ocean to reach the mainland, has inevitably
included its share of embellishments. In one notable version,
he was even said to have used two basketballs as flotation devices,
though his wife recently insisted the 55-year-old Lin, to this
day an enthusiastic and powerful swimmer, would not have needed
any help.
Regardless of the details, that he fled to the Chinese mainland
in the wake of the cultural revolution, took a degree
in Marxist economics at Peking University, studied in Chicago
under Milton Friedman and returned home to become Chinas
leading economist singles him out as a most atypical candidate
for a leading role at the World Bank.
To hear the banks President Robert Zoellick explain it,
however, the choice was a perfectly sensible one. As our
first chief economist from a developing country, and an expert
on economic development and particularly agriculture, Justin Lin
brings a unique set of skills and experience to the World Bank
Group, he said in announcing the decision.
With characteristic modesty, Lin agreed, telling the news agency
Xinhua: Chinas experiences can help the World Bank
shore up its leading role in global poverty reduction. This appointment
is a high honor, and its a historic decision for the World
Bank. By picking a candidate from China, the World Bank will be
able to better serve developing countries.
Considering the momentous economic and social transformation
China has lived through in the last 30 years, that characterization
must rank as the epitome of understatement, but the broad outline
of his life story can indeed be summarized by those two simple
words poverty reduction.
As he told reporters on the sidelines of the Chinese National
Peoples Congress, which convenes annually in March and which
he attended this year as a deputy: The World Bank and China
share the same position on the poverty alleviation issue. The
goal of the World Bank is to help developing nations fight poverty.
China also hopes other nations can find practical solutions to
their problems, just like it is doing.
Professor Lin will take up his World Bank tenure at a time when
that institutions traditional approach to poverty alleviation
has come under withering scrutiny and criticism from all quarters.
Increasingly derided in recent years for its emphasis on painful
structural readjustments to the detriment of the worlds
marginalized populations, the bank has, to its credit, lately
been exploring alternative solutions to the problem of entrenched
poverty.
In choosing the Chinese economist, World Bank President Robert
Zoellick said he would be drawing on Lins expertise, notably
in agricultural policy, to bring more effective remedies to bear
in the worlds most impoverished regions. I look forward
to working closely with him on a number of areas, including growth
and investment in Africa, opportunities for South-South learning
(between developing countries), and bank instruments to better
support countries hit by high energy and agricultural prices,
Zoellick said.
Lin, for his part, has noted that the diminishing reliance of
poorer nations on direct financial assistance will mean that the
World Banks most important role in coming years will be
as a repository of relevant expertise. Knowledge has the
trait that it will not be diminished when being applied by one
or more persons, he said during the National Peoples
Congress. A few days ago, I heard Premier Wen quote George
Bernard Shaw: If you and I both have an apple, and we exchange
them, we still have one apple each. But if we exchange the knowledge
we have respectively, the amount of knowledge we get will double.
Fortunately, my job with the World Bank deals with the creation
and exchange of knowledge.
The World Bank, he said, needed a thorough understanding of the
challenges faced by developing nations, and that therein lay the
significance of choosing a chief economist from a developing nation
like China. The World Bank can help developing countries
by offering expertise. This is what makes it different from other
financial institutions, he said.
The theoretical underpinnings of what will likely be Lins
recommendations to the World Banks board have a long pedigree,
and he has addressed his preoccupations in countless papers. But
he formulated his central theme most succinctly at the 116th Changan
Forum in Beijing in March 2007, arguing that the view held by
traditional economists that equity and efficiency belonged
to separate stages of a nations development was fundamentally
misguided.
Rather than accept low wages as the inevitable price to be paid
for greater efficiency in the initial stages of a countrys
economic development, with more equitable resource and capital
distribution to come later, Lin argued that without greater attention
to equity from the start, any future development would be severely
compromised. The experiences of nations such as Japan, the Republic
of Korea and Singapore, he maintained, demonstrated that development
was more sustainable if income distribution attended economic
development from the outset.
Drawing on the classic theory of comparative advantage, which
argued that trading nations must invest precisely in those sectors
in which they predominate, Lin recommended that developing economies
eschew capital-intensive investments in favor of the labor-intensive
manufacturing and service industries in which they enjoy preeminence.
Only after we have a surplus can we accumulate capital,
he said. For developing countries, their comparative advantage
lay in large workforces, and only by investing in labor, rather
than capital-intensive industries, could long-term growth be made
sustainable and income gaps ultimately narrowed.
But it is a position that stands in stark contrast to past World
Bank policies, which have been sadly notorious for encouraging
so-called white elephants monumental, technically
sophisticated projects in economically backward societies. Often,
the resulting need for international subsidies to compensate for
inevitable capital deficits plunged developing nations into a
spiral of debt and default. It will now be Lins task to
formulate an alternative to that discredited approach.
Still, it is one thing to have a workable theory, and quite another
to take on an entrenched culture such as the one that informs
the lending policies of an international institution. Indeed,
as Lin arrives in Washington D.C. and moves into the World Bank
headquarters on 18th Street, he may notice the small public square
just outside the building a pleasant little triangular
park called Freedom Plaza where office workers may be seen taking
their lunch.
As he is bound to discover soon, perhaps to his chagrin, it is
also the site of annual demonstrations against the policies of
his new employer, and as he begins confronting the many intractable
problems faced by the worlds poorest nations, he will surely
need all the endurance he demonstrated nearly 30 years ago in
the East China Sea.
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