World Carnival Beijing flew high in its debut year...	It still brought smiles in 2005...	Yet another fun park, Happy Valley, opened in Beijing in July 2006.

After two successive summers of staggering success in Beijing, the World Carnival met its Waterloo this year, and it may not be back. Newcomer Happy Valley meanwhile rode to the crest of popularity among Chinese carnivals. But who knows if it will remain on the rails next year?

When the World Carnival burst onto the scene in Beijing two years ago, it blew up a storm of excitement in the Chinese capital. The fun fair of international fame flooded the city with a dazzling display of rides, games and toys. Its come-and-go stay of 52 days merely tickled locals' curiosity further.

Liu Yue was one of the craziest carnival-goers of that summer. She says, “My boyfriend and I spent hours playing the ring-toss. We forked out more than RMB 600, and walked away with nothing more than two tiny soft toys.”

Many more like Liu ensured that carnival organizers walked away with a lot more. During its 52 days in Beijing in 2004, the World Carnival received more than a million visitors and made over RMB 120 million in business income. Such staggering success prompted a pledge to return for the following three years.

But the tide turned sharply this year. The World Carnival stayed for a longer period - 100 days - but attracted fewer visitors than it had in any previous year. The long queues of previous summers had evaporated. “We suffered heavy losses. I can't see how we can return next year,” lamented Su Hai, representative of foreign co-organizer Freji Entertainment International. He attributes the flop to a fickle Beijing public and inadequate publicity. “The World Carnival is nothing new to Beijing people. I've learned my lesson: the carnival cannot come to a city more than once.” But he missed one very obvious reason: the carnival's exorbitant prices are what kept the customers at bay.

What Price Is Fun?

Though she repents her rashness in blowing so much on sixpenny toys two years ago, Liu Yue says she'd be happy to revisit the World Carnival every year if its prices were lower. And, at the request of the Chinese investor, the park did indeed cut its prices twice this summer, but by fractional amounts. The average visit to the carnival still costs many hundreds of yuan.

Its inflated prices hampered the World Carnival's ability to compete with local amusement parks. When it first landed in Beijing, many feared for the fate of its local peers, particularly the neighboring Shijingshan Amusement Park. But to their surprise, Shijingshan's business has remained intact, even growing by an impressive 30 percent every summer.

Every summer vacation, 11-year-old Cao Sisi visits either the Beijing Amusement Park or Shijingshan with her parents. “We choose these two because they are cheaper,” says Cao's father. “A family of three can have a great day out for a few hundred yuan. A similar day would set me back several times that at the World Carnival.”

The summer rate for an all-day ride pass stands at RMB 100 at the Shijingshan Park and RMB 90 at the Beijing Park. Mr. Cao believes that, “Kids are happy enough to visit any park as long as they have fun. They don't care whether or not the rides are world-class.” Evidently, Mr. Cao is not alone in his opinion.

Zhang Guangrui, chief of the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says permanent carnivals and mobile amusement parks have their respective advantages and different operational strategies. The World Carnival is always on the move, so its overheads are significantly lower. Moreover, it is quick to upgrade its attractions, and it ships out during the slack seasons. It is obliged to excel on novelty and variety in order to sell its high-priced tickets - this is the only way it'll survive its brief stay in each city. Zhang reckons that the World Carnival is designed as a once-off cash splurge, and does not expect to attract regular visitors.

How Long Will Happy Valley Smile?

While the World Carnival floundered in Beijing last summer, its newborn rival Happy Valley enjoyed a very healthy start to life. In its first month since opening on July 9, it reported a visitor flow of 200,000, with the highest daily total reaching 15,000.

Says Zhang Guanrui, “The Happy Valley might well have hammered the final nail in the World Carnival's coffin. The secret to its success lies in its distinctive features, which are generated by its exclusive facilities as well as its fantastic cultural theme performances." And in the entertainment business, new faces always do well. Wang Jun, who visited Disneyland in Hong Kong just some months ago, hit the Happy Valley soon after it opened. She loved it. “The rides are more exciting, and the park is larger. In no way is it inferior to Disneyland.” She says she'd like to make another visit on a weekday, when it “would be less crowded.”

While long queues are testament to a fun park's popularity, they could also be an indication of loose management. Wang Jun recalls that Disney World visitors didn't have a long wait for even the most-loved rides, thanks to its efficient operation methods. Compared with its Hong Kong peer, the Happy Valley also lags behind in transport and dining services. These flaws could tarnish visitors' impressions and either shatter their desire for a return or damage its reputation among the public.

Others point to the deceivingly low price of the Valley. Its RMB 160 ticket covers more than 40 activities that take up to 23 hours to complete. But the park is open for just 11-and-a-half hours a day. When queuing and eating times are taken into account, only 10 activities can be completed by visitors that have the stamina to survive the entire day.

So question marks remain over how long the Happy Valley will sustain its appeal. According to a study of large theme parks carried out by tourism researcher Zhu Yi and his colleagues, an amusement park's visitor flow usually peaks in its first six to 12 months of operation before a steady decline sets in. Any new park is at first interesting to local communities, but it may not remain so for long.

The Happy Valley is working hard to escape such gloom. Deputy General Manager Zheng Wei says the park is analyzing visitor dining and activity habits. And working under the assumption that Chinese tourists take many more photographs than their foreign counterparts, the park is making its landscape more picturesque and offering relevant services. What's more, it has developed a booking system that allows tourists to reserve a seat on a ride in advance, and enjoy other activities before the time for the ride comes. But that's the advantage of running a permanent park - it's easier to adjust tactics according to market demand.

Market Research Is Vital

The International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions predicts that Asian amusement parks will take in total annual revenues of US $8.2 billion by 2010, growing by 5.9 percent on yearly basis. And those in China will see annual growth of 7.1 percent, hitting US $1.3 billion by 2010. Such estimations have triggered a gold rush among amusement businesses around the world. The famous French theme park Futuroscope plans to open a Chinese branch in Shenzhen by 2007, where it hopes to attract some three million visitors a year. Mass media giant Viacom has approved a US $7 billion investment in a Paramount theme park for Tianjin City. Even the World Carnival hasn't yet written China off. Despite its poor performance this year, its Chinese organizer says the event will go on next year, in cooperation with its British partner.

But before these newcomers arrive on Chinese soil, they should be aware that the nation has built some 2,500 or so amusement parks since the 1980s. Only 10 percent of these are turning profits, while 70 percent make regular losses. So the Chinese amusement park arena is not one that it is easy to survive. And their fate will be decided by their knowledge of the local market.