China’s Population Policy

China’s 1.3 billionth citizen was born on January 6, 2005.

China’s 1.3 billionth citizen Zhang Yichi came into this world on January 6th 2005, in the Beijing Maternity Hospital. His birth came ten years after China’s 1.2 billionth citizen, and four years later than experts’ predictions. “This indicates that the pace of China’s population growth has slowed down considerably. After more than 30 years’ hard work, China has effectively curbed its rapid population growth,” so said Yu Xuejun, director of the Policy and Legislation Department of the State Population and Family Planning Commission.

From “Strength in Numbers” to Family Planning

Shortly after the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949, a flurry of construction was carried out in various fields. “There is strength in numbers” was the popular adage of the day. The facts often supported this, particularly in the country’ vast rural areas, where a family with four or five able-bodied men would be the most prosperous. Spurred on by such a concept, China delivered its first baby boom in the 1950s. In the 1960s China saw its second baby boom. In the five years between 1964 and 1969, the national population shot up from 700 million to 800 million.

The adverse effects of such rapid population growth became apparent in the early 1970s. In 1971, the Chinese government for the first time introduced a “family planning policy,” encouraging late marriage and childbearing, and a four-year interval between births. Thus the seeds of China’s birth control policy were sown. In 1980, when China’s population approached 1 billion, the Chinese government changed the policy to “one child per couple” and began stricter implementation.

To some extent, China’s population growth has been brought under control in the past 30 years, with a steady growth of 100 million people every 7 years. According to Gu Baochang, vice secretary-general of the China Family Planning Association, China’s birth control policy is the result of an historic change from high birth rate, low infant mortality rate and high growth rate to low birth rate, low infant mortality rate and low growth rate. The policy also postponed the day when the world’s population hits 6 billion (in 1995) by four years. After more than 30 years’ effort, China’s total fertility rate has dropped from 5.8 in the 1970s to 1.8 at present. According to data released by the State Population and Family Planning Commission, if not for birth control policy, China’s population would be nearly 400 million more than the present figure. Some experts say that this is a conservative estimate.

From Fines to Bonuses

Liang Xiaowu, aged 36, is a migrant worker from a suburban village in Zunyi City, Guizhou Province. He is different from his peers in being only child. His parents, both in their 60s, rely on him for support. This is a heavy burden. Liang Xiaowu and his wife have just one child, and had been thinking about having another. However, a recent policy issued by the State Population and Family Planning Commission provided the Liangs with some much-needed breathing space. In March 2004, the commission announced that farmers who were 60 years old or more and who had not violated family planning policies would be rewarded with an allowance of at least 50 yuan per month. Four months later the system was put into operation on a trial basis in 14 provinces, including Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai and Guizhou’s Zunyi City. Liang Xiaowu’s parents now receive 50 yuan per month until their death. For elderly couples living in remote villages, this additional income has a great impact on their living standards, and reduces the burden on Liang Xiaowu, and many more like him. Moreover, Liang Xiaowu has abandoned his plan to have a second child.

This experimental policy has a special significance in rural areas. Of China’s 1.3 billion people, some 900 million live in the countryside, where the small-scale peasant economy is dominant, and welfare systems lag far behind those in urban areas. Many farmers hold the view that raising sons was their only sure way of providing for their future. In remote areas, where this idea is predominant, sonless families are looked down upon. When the family planning policy was first introduced, the greatest defiance came from farmers. In some areas, family planning departments had to impose fines on families that violated the policy.

Now, however, this phenomenon is no more. As more farmers venture into the cities to earn a living, rearing children as a guarantee against old age has changed. Younger generation farmers, in particular, have developed a mindset similar to that of their urban peers. They pay more attention to rearing than bearing children and would rather have one that has the physical and material means to support them. Nowadays, many rural couples choose to have one child and to provide him/her with the best education possible. The bonus system for one-child aged couples, as Liang Xiaowu can attest, has also encouraged farmers to comply with the family planning policy.

Will the Family Planning Policy End?

There is no doubt that the brakes have been placed on the pace of China’s population growth. Academic circles are now putting forward two very different views on what the future holds.

One side argues that China’s population pressure is actually exaggerated. They point out the risks of a rapidly graying population, saying China should relax its birth control policy, and permit two children per couple.

The other side maintains that although the country’s total fertility rate has plummeted to 1.8, the birth rate is still not stable. They fear a rebounding surge in population growth if the policy is relaxed. By the end of 2002, about 60 million women of childbearing age had received the one-child certificate. If the policy were to be relaxed, every year would see a huge number of compensatory births, which would in turn jeopardize the country’s stable population growth rate. For the moment, at least, the latter viewpoint has won wider recognition, particularly where it counts: among the policy makers. Qiao Xiaochun, professor at the Demographic Institute of the Renmin University of China, points out that if the total fertility rate of 1.8 is accurate, then China’s peak population should not even hit 1.5 billion, let alone 1.6 billion.

Tian Xueyuan, vice president of the China Population Society, says that in the coming years, China’s population problem will become more complicated, and that the quality and structure of the population will require more attention. Many scholars and government officials agree. The Forum on China’s State Population Development Strategy, held in February 2004, aimed to study a strategic shift in China’s population. Hua Jianmin, state councilor and secretary-general of the State Council, stressed at the forum that the country should make accurate quantity analyses and scientific judgments on major issues, including how much arable land, grain, fresh water and energy will be needed when China’s population reaches its peak. This will provide a scientific basis on which to formulate important policies. A population development strategy has begun, and 120 academicians and specialists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing University are taking part.

Qiao Xiaochun stresses that a disparity between the population and resources will always exist, but with scientific and technological developments, it should narrow in the future.